Ontario's university students from middle-income families could get "lost in the shuffle" if tuition fees increase, a new report warns.

The report, being released today by the Ontario Confederation of University Faculty Associations, argues that although the government is offering grants to students from low-income families, those in the middle-class bracket face more debt or longer hours at work if the province allows universities to set their own tuition.

"The [study] offers a sobering caution to the Ontario government: Make sure future tuition policy eliminates barriers to postsecondary education rather than creates new ones," confederation president Michael Doucet said in a release.

The report is being released just as the provincial government is consulting those in the education sector about what to do after the two-year freeze on tuition is lifted next September. In a sweeping report on the province's postsecondary system, former premier Bob Rae opted for higher tuition fees linked to more generous financial-aid schemes.

A spokesman for Chris Bentley, Minister of Training, Colleges and Universities, said a decision on tuition will likely be announced by the end of the year.

Hugh Mackenzie, author of the report and an economist, said tuition increases are not the answer. Instead, publicly subsidizing tuition to keep student costs down will allow middle-class families to afford university, he said.

"Replacing the current progressive subsidization of postsecondary education with higher tuition could squeeze out many families in the middle of Ontario's income scale," Mr. Mackenzie said in the report.

Advocates of higher tuition say deregulating fees and providing grants to students from low-income families allow universities to be less dependent on the provincial funding. Mr. Mackenzie said the approach simply moves the "financial obstacles" to the middle-income group.

They will not only face tuition increases, but receive little help in the form of grants, he said.

The middle-income group was defined as families with an annual income between $35,000 and $75,000.

In the report, Mr. Mackenzie rejects the argument that publicly funding postsecondary education amounts to a subsidy for the rich, paid for by the poor.

"The problem with that logic," he said in an interview, "is that it ignores where the money comes from for the subsidy. When you look at tax obligations, lower- and middle-income students are substantial net beneficiaries of [government] subsidized tuition."

Tuition fees in Ontario have increased substantially, with undergraduate students now paying $4,881.

Mr. Mackenzie said Ontario universities are more dependent on tuition as a source of revenue than those in other provinces. The report shows that tuition fees account for 43 per cent of university operating revenue, a figure that has doubled over the past decade.

"No one is expecting that tuition is going to double tomorrow or that the government is going to eliminate it," Mr. Mackenzie said. "The point that I try to make is that we really ought to be more careful about the direction of change that we're embarking on."

Forcing students to pay more to go to university in Ontario would put higher education out of reach for many of them, especially those from middle-income families, a new study suggests.

The analysis, commissioned by the province's professors and to be released tomorrow, also concludes that trying to address the situation with direct grants to lower income students won't really help.

"A move from the current progressive subsidization of post-secondary education toward high tuition policy would have a dramatic effect on the vast majority of Ontario families," the paper states.

"The real victims . . . would be Ontario families in the middle 50 per cent of the income distribution."

The Ontario Confederation of University Faculty Associations, which commissioned the study, warned that higher tuition fees would impair the ability of Ontario universities to remain accessible to all qualified students.

"We are very wary of a high tuition regime setting in," said association president Michael Doucet.

"If Ontario needs a first-rate post-secondary education system, then in our view, the bulk of the funding for that should come from general revenues of the provincial government."

While Ontario's Liberal government has instituted a two-year tuition freeze and provided additional funding to cash-strapped colleges and universities, Doucet said faculty members fear that advocates of higher tuition levels have the province's ear as it reviews its tuition policy.

Based on earlier research, the new analysis finds that tuition in Ontario already accounts for more than 40 per cent of university revenues. That's twice the level in 1990, and far higher than the average in the rest of the country.

It also suggests that the deregulation of tuition fees in professional programs such as law and medicine has led to a precipitous decline in the number of students from lower income families in those programs.

But there are proponents of higher fees, including former premier Bob Rae, who argue that universities would be less reliant on the vagaries of government funding if they charged students more, and that the impact on those students doesn't have to be severe.

In keeping with recommendations Rae made earlier this year, the province recently announced it would team up with Ottawa to provide direct grants of up to $6,000 for low-income students. That, however, leaves out the two-thirds of Ontario families that make more than $35,000 a year, Doucet said.

"We fully support the reintroduction of grants for needy students, but my heavens, (they are) unbelievably narrowly targeted," said Doucet.

Alex Usher, vice-president of the Educational Policy Institute, said real tuition rates have had little impact on accessibility despite having more than doubled over the past 15 years.

"Middle-class parents are paying more and people from lower incomes have slightly higher debts than they did 15 years ago," Usher said of the impact of higher fees. "That's about it."

Hugh Mackenzie, the economist who wrote the new study, agreed the jury is still out on how higher tuition levels affect accessibility.

But it's clear, he said, that arguments for the deregulation of fees don't hold water either.

"We don't know enough about the impact to be able to say with any confidence that we're not creating a huge problem," said Mackenzie.

Premier Dalton McGuinty has already warned that fees will have to increase once his government's two-year tuition freeze ends next year and Doucet said the province must develop a comprehensive policy before then.

"At the very least, a lot more study needs to be done on the potential impact," Doucet said.

TORONTO, Sept. 7 /CNW/ - Up to 60 per cent of families could be adversely affected if the Ontario government listens to the flawed logic of higher tuition advocates, says a new report on tuition.

The Tuition Trap, a research report by economist Hugh Mackenzie, shows how families in the middle of Ontario's income spectrum could easily get squeezed out of being able to afford university if the provincial government adopts a higher tuition policy in the coming years.

"Those advocating higher tuition offer deceptively simple but flawed remedies to postsecondary education funding pressures but the majority of families in the middle lose out," Mackenzie says.

"The reason is simple: When governments substitute high tuition for public funding, Ontarians lose the key benefits of our progressive income tax system which ensures a net transfer from higher-income families to lower- income families. Those in the middle get lost in the shuffle."

The report examines the negative impact of more than a decade of tuition increases in Ontario. It examines flaws in the arguments of those advocating higher tuition fees and it shows how initiatives such as grants to low-income students fail to soften the blow of high tuition.

"The Tuition Trap offers a sobering caution to the Ontario government: Make sure future tuition policy eliminates barriers to postsecondary education rather than creates new ones," says OCUFA President Michael Doucet.

"That is why we recommend the government extend its tuition freeze while it studies the ramifications of high tuition on low- and middle-income families. It is better to get tuition policy right than to shut the door on Ontario families wanting a university education for their children."

The Tuition Trap was commissioned by the Ontario Confederation of University Faculty Associations (OCUFA), which represents 13,000 university professors and academic librarians.

For further information: The report's author Hugh Mackenzie, c (416) 884-5378 or Mark Rosenfeld, OCUFA Associate Executive Director, (416) 979-2117 x 233

TORONTO (CP) – Forcing students to pay more to go to university in Ontario would put higher education out of reach for many of them, especially those from middle-income families, a new study suggests.

The analysis, commissioned by the province's professors and to be released today, also concludes that trying to address the situation with direct grants to lower income students won't really help.

"A move from the current progressive subsidization of post-secondary education toward a high tuition policy would have a dramatic effect on the vast majority of Ontario families," the paper states.

"The real victims … would be Ontario families in the middle 50 percent of the income distribution."

The Ontario Confederation of University Faculty Associations, which commissioned the study, warned that higher tuition fees would impair the ability of Ontario universities to remain accessible to all qualified students.

"We are very wary of a high tuition regime setting in," said association president Michael Doucet.

"If Ontario needs a first-rate post-secondary education system, then in our view the funding for that should come from general revenues of the provincial government."

While Ontario's Liberal government has instituted a two-year tuition freeze and provided additional funding to cash-strapped colleges and universities, Doucet said faculty members fear that advocates of higher tuition levels have the provinces ear as it reviews its tuition policy.

Based on earlier research, the new analysis finds that tuition in Ontario already accounts for 40 percent of university revenues. That's twice the level in 1990, and far higher than the average in the rest of the country.

It also suggests that the deregulation of tuition fees in professional programs such as law and medicine has led to a precipitous decline in the number of students from lower income families in those programs.

But there are proponents of higher fees, including former premier Bob Rae, who argue that universities would be less reliant on the vagaries of government funding if they charged students more, and that the impact on those students doesn't have to be severe.

In keeping with recommendations Rae made earlier this year, the province recently announced it would team up with Ottawa to provide direct grants of up to $6,000 for lower income students. That, however, leaves out the two-thirds of Ontario families that make more than $35,000 a year, Doucet said. "At the very least, a lot more study needs to be done on the potential impact," he said.