Effects of miscalculation: Boomerang high grads hurt Trent
By Trevor Wilhelm
Peterborough Examiner - December 8, 2004, page B1
OurTrent Editor's note: Trent management miscalculated the number of students and counted on that number for the funding they would provide. It seems hardly accurate nor fair to blame students themselves for the negative effects of a management decision that failed to materialize and resulted in a financial shortfall of around $1.75 million. See Whoops! Another miscalculation.
Trent University's enrolment projections came up short this year thanks to a province wide trent that saw many high school graduates apply to university, then electing to return to high school.
Trent registrar Susan Salusbury said discussions with schools, parents and guidance counsellors suggest as many as 70 per cent of Ontario graduates returned for a fifth year of high scholl this year.
The phenomenon was particularly surprising at Trent, she said during a university senate meeting yesterday, because it received more than 11,000 applications. That's about 52 per cent more than 2002.
"We thought, hey, this is positive," said Salusbury, adding comparisons are made to 2002 because last year's double cohort skewed statistics. "But it didn't turn out that way. Based on the applications we expected a certain yield. Those students decided not to come to university. It was like hitting a brick wall, There was nothing we could do."
Trent's student numbers did increase this year. In November, 7,702 full- and part-time students were enrolled at the school, compared to 7,795 a year earlier. But the increase was considerably less than expected.
About 1,000 students who applied to Trent didn't go to university at all. Trent representatives contacted half of those, focusing on the students who had Trent as their first choice.
"Almost without exception they felt they weren't ready to come to university," Salusbuty said.
She said many students returned to high school to do extracurricular activities such as football and drama. Many students, she said, felt they'd missed out on those things thanks to a more hectic academic regime with changes in Ontario's curriculum.
"It was quite an adjustment and they felt they needed extra time to finish high school the way they wanted to," Salusbury said.
Sylvia Terpstra, Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board's education director, said the trend caught her board off guard too. She said 600 of the board's Grade 12 students returned for a fifth year.
"We support that," she said. "We just needed to project it better."
Salusbury said Trent will send letters to the students who were accepted last year and didn't go, letting them know their offers of acceptance and scholarships still stand.
In the meantime, she said the university is wondering whether to brace for this phenomenon next year.
"In another couple of years we'll have a sense of whether this will be a pattern," Salusbury said. "When you have a shift it takes a while to adjust. There will be a couple more years of grey hair until we get things figured out."
